Gas vehicles gone by 2035: No need to panic!

News
Published on December 1, 2020

The Quebec government recently announced its intention to ban the sale of new gas vehicles starting in 2035. Should we be worried? Not necessarily. Here’s why.

While the prospect of reduced greenhouse gas emissions from gas-powered vehicles is a good thing, the jury is still out on whether it’s realistic and achievable for everyone. First, there’s a caveat. As currently drafted, the ban would only affect vehicles that cannot plug in to the electrical grid. Benoit Charette, Minister of the Environment and the Fight against Climate Change, has implied that dealers would still be allowed to sell plug-in hybrid cars and light trucks.

Although new public charging stations are popping up all the time and battery range is constantly improving, it might be too soon for certain motorists to get on board with fully electric vehicles even 15 years from now. Case in point: city dwellers who park on the street and cannot plug a car in at home. Rechargeable hybrids, which combine an electric plug-in drive system with a gas-powered engine, would be an acceptable alternative. They’re not as clean as 100% battery-powered cars but they’re an improvement on cars that run entirely on gas.

For now, the government’s plan does not affect standard (non-rechargeable) hybrid cars. Yet these models would help achieve greenhouse gas targets because they burn 20% to 30% less fuel than their gas-powered equivalents.

Used cars, a useful option

It’s important to note that the plan would only apply to sales of new cars. Gas vehicles already on the road would still be legal, with no restrictions. Likewise, the sale and purchase of used combustion-engine vehicles would still be allowed, so there is an alternative for people who cannot—or don’t want to—switch to an electric or rechargeable hybrid vehicle.

When properly maintained, today’s gas-engine vehicles can often clock up to 300,000 km with no major repairs. Assuming 16,000 km a year, that works out to an impressive lifespan of about twenty years. So no need to worry that gas stations will be on the verge of extinction in 2035.

A proliferation of models, and a bigger fan base

For now, electric vehicles (EVs) are the exception rather than the rule in Quebec. But their market share is growing all the time. Consumers are showing a genuine interest, especially in Quebec with our clean, affordable electricity. At the same time, plenty of other countries and jurisdictions have announced plans to ban gas-powered vehicles in the next 10 to 20 years, including France, the United Kingdom, and British Columbia. And here’s the big one: California has committed to a 2035 deadline, just like Quebec. Car sales in California alone are equivalent to sales in all of Canada.

To stay in the game, manufacturers are eager to design electrified models in all categories, including pickups and SUVs. In 2022 Ford will unveil a fully electric F-150, and General Motors has announced that five years from now 40% of its vehicles will be EVs. GM is partnering with LG Chem in Lordstown, Ohio, to build a battery manufacturing plant the size of 60 football fields. And Tesla’s gigafactory in Nevada has been churning out batteries since 2016. But the fact is, certain resources currently needed to make batteries, such as lithium and cobalt, are difficult to locate or extract. That could hinder growth in production, but recycling programs and new technology are potential solutions.

Keeping an eye on price

Today’s EVs are significantly more expensive than their gas-powered equivalents. Offsetting the extra cost by spending less on maintenance and energy is all well and good, but consumers still need to secure financing and make higher monthly payments from day one. Government rebates help, but officials have not ruled out the possibility that these incentives will be reduced in the future.

The main factor in the initial price difference is the battery in an EV. Analysts predict that battery production costs will shrink to the point where the gap is closed, or even reversed, thanks to super factories like Tesla's. The best-case scenario is that the price gap will be eliminated in 2025. Issues with raw material supplies could mean we’ll have to wait longer than that. But the cost of EVs will inevitably go down because that’s what always happens as new technology gains traction.

Time is on our side

The government’s target is certainly a challenge, but it’s not as extreme as it appears. Manufacturers are buying into electric power, costs are trending downward, and technology and available models are evolving rapidly. What’s more, Quebec is not flying solo in the quest for electrification. As long as hybrids (rechargeable or not) and used, gas-powered cars are part of the equation, motorists should benefit from the required flexibility to transition to the new reality.

In the time between the government announcement and the change in legislation, we’re sure to see a wider range of mobility options that are less harmful to the environment. CAA-Quebec will be there as always to inform and guide consumers in making the right choice for their needs.

Useful references

Interested in an electric vehicle now? Let CAA-Quebec help you shop:

  • Road tests -Our experts review electric cars, rechargeable hybrids, and standard hybrids.